Understanding COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics with Global Data-Driven Estimation
$ 45.5
Description
This book presents a data-driven mathematical model of COVID-19 that includes vaccination, waning immunity, reinfection, and multiple transmission pathways. Using U.S.A hospital data (2021–2023), the model is calibrated and validated to reflect real epidemic trends. Results show that vaccination reduces infections and hospitalizations, but waning immunity weakens long-term protection. Sensitivity analysis identifies quarantine of exposed individuals as the most effective control strategy. The study also finds that COVID-19 dynamics can exhibit backward bifurcation, meaning elimination requires sustained combined interventions, not just reducing the reproduction number below one.