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Making Math Counts for Local Government: Estimating Migration and Emigration Model in Mabinay

$ 49.5

Published: 2023-09-07
Category: Mathematics
Category Social Science
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This book presents a study that focused on the migration and emigration estimation model in the municipality of Mabinay, Negros Oriental, Philippine. Trend extrapolation method was utilized and secondary data were used from the Municipal Planning and Development Council (MPDC) of Mabinay, Negros Oriental for the data on population and from the seventeen (17) barangays for the data on population migration and population emigration with the use of researcher-made template. This study employed and utilized the Naïve model, simple mean model, simple moving average model, weighted moving average model, exponential smoothing model, and trend projection model to estimate migration and emigration in the municipality of Mabinay. The mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error were utilized to determine which of the six (6) estimation models best fit to estimate data. Result showed that there is a growing population in the municipality of Mabinay and there were more migrants compared to emigrants. The results suggest that there were more people entering and want to live in the municipality due to its big land area, less dense population, available natural resources and growing number of developed tourist spots and destinations . Additionally, Simple Mean (Average) forecasting model best fit to estimate the migration and emigration in the municipality of Mabinay, Negros Oriental, Philippines. The researcher also generated equations y = −1.05x + 169.05 for migration and y=0.85x+91.47 for migration to estimate population. Finally, the researcher concluded that as the years continue, number of migrants decreases while the nu

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